Digital Transactional Video Returns to Growth on Stronger Slate and Premium Uptake

After two years of disruption, the digital transactional market is starting to find its stride again. That’s according to the latest Digital Transactional Market Outlook Report from Futuresource Consulting. Despite a weaker final quarter and continued pressure from a softer theatrical slate, the global market held steady at $7.6 billion in 2025. Now, with a pipeline of tentpole releases and stronger premium window activity, the market is forecast to return to growth in 2026, rising 5% globally to $8.0 billion.

“What 2025 showed us very clearly is that transactional still has resilience,” says Joanna Wright, Senior Market Analyst at Futuresource Consulting, “but it is highly responsive to the quality and timing of the release slate. We’re seeing a market that reacts quickly to content strength, window strategy and retail execution. In 2026, the conditions are right for a meaningful rebound.”

A market that still knows how to convert demand

The report shows that digital transactional remains one of the most dependable monetisation layers in the wider home entertainment ecosystem. Particularly when studios and retailers collaborate to achieve fresh content, smart windowing and visible merchandising.

Franchise titles, sequels and family films continue to generate the strongest uplift, not only in new release, but across the deeper catalogue as well. The year ahead is expected to see a return to a rich slate, including major titles such as Zootopia 2, Avatar: Fire and Ash, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Mortal Kombat II, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day, alongside highly anticipated and strong conversion genres from new IP including Project Hail Mary and The Odyssey.

Premium windowing moves out of trial mode

One of the key shifts identified by this new Futuresource report is the growing maturity of premium and early-release windowing.

“What began as a test-and-learn strategy during the Covid era has become a more established revenue lever,” says Wright. “We saw this play out across several developed markets. And while the approach still varies by studio and territory, premium windows are now contributing significant revenue in markets where audiences are less price-sensitive and more willing to pay for earlier access.”

In the USA, premium digital releases generated just over $800 million in 2025, while in the UK premium accounted for around 20% of total transactional spend, surpassing $100 million.

Retail concentration is shaping the market

The report also highlights how much of the market’s performance now rests on retailer reach, visibility and promotional capability.

Amazon takes the lead in the category, having long been a pro-active and supportive retailer for the sector, it is now averaging over 50% share across most European markets tracked, from a 36% share 6 years ago. 
It has continued to build year on year, playing a key role in promoting library content as well as new releases and resurfacing old titles while offering regular promotions and leveraging its integration within the wider Prime eco-system.
In a market where discovery, placement and pricing can materially shift performance, retail execution matters more than ever.

Movies continue to carry the load

Structurally, the market is also becoming more movie-led. Futuresource expects a relatively even split between EST Movie and TVOD spend at around 45% each in 2026, while EST TV continues to come under pressure from subscription and ad-funded streaming platforms.

“The transactional sector still rewards audiences in a way few other parts of the video market can,” says Wright. “However, it is becoming more dependent on precision in release strategy, in pricing and in platform execution. That’s where the next wave of success will come from.”

About Futuresource Consulting

Futuresource Consulting’s Digital Transactional Market Outlook Report provides detailed global forecasts through to 2030, with deep regional analysis and a particular focus on Europe.

Futuresource Consulting provides the insights that power the world’s leading technology and media companies. For more than 30 years the firm has combined rigorous data, sector expertise and a forward-looking view of market change. Its syndicated research, consulting services and industry partnerships span consumer electronics, entertainment, Pro AV, education and emerging technologies.
www.futuresource-consulting.com 

Press Contact: Nicola Finn, Head of Marketing and Communications, Futuresource Consulting, nicola.finn@futuresource-hq.com